You can most certainly be a profitable parlay bettor, but this is not an easy thing to do. Parlays look like they are a lot easier to be successful at than they really are, and unfortunately, this tricks a lot of sports fans into making bets that they shouldn’t. They might seem like a good idea, but parlays should be used sparingly, and only when the conditions for them are just right.
There are two big components that you need to take into consideration when it comes to being a successful sports bettor. First, you need to find good opportunities. This is what most sports bettors are skilled at. This would include things like knowing that the Colts are favored to beat the Panthers, or that the Bills-Dolphins game is going to be a low scoring game. This is an important skill, but it’s not enough on its own to make someone a successful sports bettor. Most casual sports fans consider themselves to be experts in this area, and many are. But there are not many professional sports bettors out there, which is a clear indicator that these two things are not related.
The second component is that difference between a sports fan and a successful sports bettor. This means finding good betting opportunities like we mentioned above and then also making sure that they are mathematically advantageous to you. Math scares a lot of people, but it’s one of those things that you need to have a mastery over if you want to be a profitable parlay bettor. In the world of betting, this would be called a positive expected value play. Even if you’re wrong with your bet, given enough bets with similar odds, you are going to be correct often enough to create a profit.
So, let’s say that you think that the over of 44.5 points has a 55 percent chance of occurring and you are receiving -110 odds on that bet. Is this a good bet to make?
First, you need to know that these two things have a direct relationship. The breakeven win rate at 55 percent probability is -122, showing that this is actually a really good bet to take. But, if you thought that there was only a 51 percent chance of the over occurring, you would be losing money over the long term as the breakeven rate at 51 percent is only -104. This kind of knowledge is what’s necessary for a smart sports bettor to take his game to the next level.
Applying this to a parlay strategy is pretty easy. If you find multiple bets that make mathematical sense AND are smart strategies from the perspective of a fan, then stringing them together in a parlay suddenly becomes a lot more lucrative. Incorporating this concept into your parlays will help you to become a lot more profitable over the long term.
One of Many
Finally, you need to remember that although parlays hold a lot of potential, they are not the only thing that you should be doing as a sports bettor. There will be times where you won’t make a parlay for weeks at a time, and that’s perfectly okay. Sometimes this is the right play to make, and sometimes you should stay far away from using this.
It’s best if you think of a parlay as just one tool in your larger toolbox. Just like a carpenter, you’re not going to use the same tool over and over again. You will have a hammer, but you’ll also have a saw, tape measure, and square. Taking this back to sports betting, you will use parlays sometimes, but it won’t be the only type of bet that you make. You will also make traditional bets, exotic event bets, and might even supplement this with other things, like daily fantasy sports, horse betting, or other activities. A parlay is a great tool to have, but it shouldn’t be the only one that you use.
If you use the parlay in an intelligent manner, seeking out the best opportunities and then capitalizing upon them, it can be a great way to boost your overall profitability. If you look at it from this perspective, then it makes the idea of being a great parlay bettor a lot easier to manage.
This is where so many bettors go wrong, and it’s where you should be paying the most attention. Sports betting is a long term investment. The moment that you think that one bet is important, you are missing the big picture. You are looking at your bets at the end of the month, or even year, and then evaluating success from there. Parlays can be quite profitable, but one or two wins or losses is meaningless unless you are looking at things from a wider perspective.