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Using Semi-Correlated Parlays to Boost Winnings

July 20, 2018

Truly correlated parlays are usually not allowed at sportsbooks, but semi-correlated parlays and they can often be used to your advantage. However, you need to act fast on these as books will sometimes shut them down if they see that they are getting a lot of action. Semi-correlated parlays are usually allowed at most books, but not if the book thinks that they are too closely related.

Here, we will talk a little bit about what these plays are, and why they can help you win more.

Let’s start by looking at a quick example. If the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots are playing each other and the Pats are 3.5 point favorites, but you know that the Buffalo Bills defense historically does not allow a lot of points, you may want to take the Pats as the money line favorite but bet the under on the over/under in the same parlay.

Do you see how these two plays build on each other? The Bills are not favored to win, but they are expected to keep the game pretty close. On top of that, the Bills have a history of limiting their opponent’s points in this example. These are not quite the same thing, but they are closely related enough that if you know the history of the two teams that you might be able to spot this and take advantage of it.

The Power of Correlating Some BetsLet’s take a look at the math theory behind this before we jump to any conclusions, though. Semi-correlated means that there’s an increased chance of one thing happening if the other happens. So, if the Patriots win, then there’s a chance that it will also be done. Correlations run on a scale of -1 to 1. A correlation of 1 means that if one thing happens, the other will definitely always happen. The closer to 0 the correlation becomes, the more random chance becomes a part of this. As you dip into the negative numbers, then the more likely the opposite of what you want to happen becomes. A correlation of -1 means that if one event happens, the other will definitely not happen.

There are plenty of databases out there that measure these types of things. The odds are that you will never find a correlation above .90. In fact, for bets like these, a correlation higher than 0.50 is actually really strong. Depending on what you’re looking for and the amount that you are risking, these are bets that you should definitely be considering making.

The general rule holds that the higher the correlation, the better your chances of a successful bet become. Using information like this to your advantage won’t guarantee a single winning bet, but it will increase your win rate in a drastic way over a long period of time.

Yes, semi-correlated parlays can really help you to boost your win rate, but you also need to be careful that you don’t rely on them too much. Although these types of plays might seem like no brainers, it’s often really easy to get one half of the equation correct and completely missed the other half. And when you miss just one portion of a parlay, you miss out on everything. In this respect, using parlays and parlays alone is a very risky move. However, when you use it as part of a diversified approach to your betting, you can drastically increase your winnings with just a few big wins here and there.

Don’t forget that parlays are risky and there’s always a chance that you’ll lose money on them. However, that’s part of the fun of betting, isn’t it? There’s a lot of risk, but when you do hit these bets, you will quickly see how worthwhile they can be.

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